THREAD: Some numbers on Covid and kids since 1 Sept 2020.

For 5-14 yr old kids:
Whole of Autumn term (rise of Alpha) through to spring: 239K confirmed cases.
Summer term starts low, then Delta. April - August another 285K cases.
Since 1 Sept, 336K cases *so far*. 1/7

photo

Case ascertainment improved in March with regular testing for school kids - but even compared to summer term, numbers this term are *far higher*.

ONS infection survey (no testing bias) reported that prevalence in 2nd-ry school kids now more than 2x higher than winter peak . 2/7

photo

What will burden of Long Covid be in children infected since summer?
ONS estimated that in 4 weeks to 2 May, 23K children ages 2-16 had persistent symptoms from Covid caught at least 12 weeks before - ie infections before mid Feb 2021.
(June dataset: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/alldatarelatingtoprevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk) 3/7

photo

By the latest Oct report, which covers 4 weeks to 5 September 2021, that estimate increased to 29K children aged 2-16 - reflecting infections up to mid June 2021.

Some cases from May will have resolved, but many more have started.

But since *mid June* cases have soared... 4/7

photo

The Long Covid impact from the 600,000 (!) confirmed cases in 5-14 yrs since mid June 2021 *has not yet been counted*.

Pesistent symptoms 12 weeks out from infection from this term (since 1 Sept) will *not* start to show up in ONS data until late Dec/Early Jan 2022. 5/7

photo

Even allowing for better case ascertainment and even if you assume ONS overestimates Long Covid, the huge number of cases over past 4 months will result in thousands more Long Covid cases in children.

And this term is not even half way through yet. 6/7

The other health impact of cases on children is that some children will need hospital for Covid.

We do see sustained high (for kids) hospital admissions this summer & they are rising.

Even ignoring transmission to adults or educational disruption, cases have consequences. 7/7

photo