1/9 - Oct 10 to Oct 16 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
https://tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu & https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Europe -
There are 3 #COVID19 zones in Europe:
- Green (safe) in Spain and Italy;
(FR and PT=0.91, red, but close to safe zones);
- Orange (R-eff <0.9), landing [close to safety zones] [CH; NO]; ALB;
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others.
PL=1.20; DK=1.16 are leaving safe zones.

3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
[Romania (R-eff=1.21,30.9% 1 dose); Bulgaria=1.08, 36.9%]; Ukraine=1.19 (17.0%); Russia=1.08 (33.8%) are experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, with very high [alarming mortality] for 7 more days.
Slovakia=1.19 (45.2%), Croatia=1.06, Turkey are increasing.

4/9 - Africa -
Increase in #COVID19 cases in Gabon (R-eff=1.08), (4.9% received 1 dose);
Libya=0.93 is slowly landing, high mortality (20.8% received 1 dose).
Underreporting in many countries.

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5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.04, 37.3% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Israel (72.5%) is rapidly landing towards its safety zone, with high mort.
Iran and [Irak] are [slowly] landing, with high and [low] mortality.

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6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.12) is rising in in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low mortality, while Thailand=0.93 is slowly landing, with medium mortality; Philippines and Malaysia are landing, with medium mortality levels, for 7 more days.

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7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
Singapore (R-eff=1.24, 81.1% received 1 dose) surges at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality, for 7 more days.

Australia=1.10, rise (69.8%), low mort.

China; Taiwan; NZ=1.34, 43-56 cases/d; SK; Japan, Vietnam: safe.

8/9 - North America -
Canada is slowly landing in its #COVID19 epid activ, low mort, 79.1% 1 dose: Red in 7 prov/terr, green in Ontario, Orange in Alberta.
The USA are slowly landing towards their safety zone, (65.8%), orange in 17 but still red in 33 states, with high mortality.

9/9 - Latin America
Brazil (R-eff=1.01,72.9% 1 dose), El Salvador plateau, med-high mort.; Belize=1.1 rise; Dominican Repub.=1.23 surge in their #COVID19 epid activ.
Cuba; Costa-Rica landing, high mort.
Argentina; Colombia; Mexico; Peru: safe.
Chile=1.08 leaving its safety zone.

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10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0